State elections Feb_Mar 2012 >> I TOLD YOU SO !

State elections Feb_Mar 2012
I TOLD YOU SO !
The elections are over and the results are out. Also over is the analysis-orgy on news channels, the exit poll results and their live-analysis. One channel (CNN IBN ) was quite accurate in the predictions. Elections produce the same media frenzy in India as IPL or World Cup and seem to have just about a much impact. Entertainment and no more. Rarely does an elected government , whether BJP, Congrss, Akali Dal etc etc make a significant impact on development and governance. But more on that in some other place. It is the UP elections which interested me most.

UP has a population of 20 crores.. so ranked among national populations, it would be the 4 the largest after China , India and USA. It sends 80 plus MPs to Parliament. A state election in UP considerably influences the formation of the Central Government. Therefore the importance of UP elections should not be under estimated.

Here is what we heard after the results came out.

Digvijay Singh (Congress loose canon) took “full responsibility” and offered to resign. He would have continued his resignation offer had not Sonia Gandhi exonerated him by saying that the congress infrastructure in UP was weak. I understand Digvijay always carries on his person a dozen readymade resignation letters.

Rahul took “full responsibility” , but unfortunately did NOT offer to resign. I would have loved to see him offer a resignation and loved even more to see his resignation accepted. It is time for India to cast aside the Nehru-Gandhi family and for Rahul to get a shave.

Sonia Gandhi , like her son, did NOT offer to resign. My comments on her same as for Rahul. She blamed the infrastructure in UP. Now even 4th standard students in India know that Infrasructure is a huge problem.. for the last 20 years. For gods sake we even have tax rebate on infrastructure bonds . So why did she wake up only now ? Really,  I exhort her to resign and start a Pizza shop (Called Asli Italian Gandhi Pizza.. branches in Switzerland) and I promise to eat a pizza every year. From Pizzahut of course.

Unusually, this time the Congress did something which normally only BJP does after a defeat. They, the Congress, said would do introspection. Is this a foretaste of a likely Congres BJP alliance in the near future ?They will jointly introspect !


Mayawati true to form blamed everyone / everything (except her own party’s corruption, poor governance) for the losses, though she DID leave out the CIA and ISI this time. Her defeat, she said , was a direct result of the communalization of the elections by the BJP and Congress. This forced 70% of the muslims to vote fro BSP>

Which brings me to my main reason for writing this post. << I TOLD YOU (BJP) SO !! >> In an earlier post I had written that no party in India can afford to ignore the muslim voter. That’s something the BJP refuses to learn depending instead on the hindu-hormone theory. Well, its let them down for the fifth time.

Akhilesh Yadav was the big winner.. and interestingly he has not been saying much.

Overall, personally I am happy with the results. It is the beginning of the rule of second generation Backward class leaders. Things will change for the better. The dynasty has a real challenge on its hands in the coming years. It might even get wiped out. 

Amen to that !

Coming soon.. ELECTIONS !

Coming soon ELECTIONS !
Its that time of the year again. Elections !! Coming up in several states in the next few months and for the parliament in 2014. The newspapers/ magazines and TV channels are already working overtime churning out analysis and predictions. So why should I be left out. Here is my take on the 2014 parliament election.

We can look forward to another coalition government. The 3 possibilities are

• Congress let UPA
• BJP led NDA
• Third front..led by SP/ Mulayam Singh,

The million (or billion dollar scam) question of course is which one… I could make an anaylsis or a guess, but personally I wish it to be the BJP. Now I am no BJP-lover..quite the contrary in fact. My simple reason is that a change in government is good for India, and the NDA is best suited to replace the UPA. Also I am fed up (an understatement) with the Nehru-Gnadhi dynasty and the chamchagiri culture of Congress.

Here is what I think will be important in winning the elections:

• • Corruption is NOT an election issue. The BJP might stall parliament over it, but the bulk of voters are not interested. The Anna Hazare movement with all the initial media coverage and rallies, and even the government paying heed to it, was basically an urban middle-class thing. We are 110 crore people in India, barely 10 lac were involved.
• • Religion, Caste and community will continue to dominate voter choice for more than 80% of the electorate.
• • Smart pre-election alliances will win votes and seats. Unfortunately I do not see any serious effort in this direction by either the BJP or the Congress.
• • Clarity of leadership at the state level will help win seats. The BJP is ahead of the Congress in this.
• • Antagonising the Muslims can cost BJP dear…and this may probably be BJPs biggest hurdle, in the form of Narendra Modi.

Now the big issue within BJP is whether Narendra Modi can be the PM. Personally I think he is a dangerous man to have as PM. But even if by some divine intervention Modi were to become less fascist, his anti-Muslim image will not go away, and that means Nitish Kumar/ Bihar, Naveen Patnaik/ Odisha Chandra Babu Naidu/ AP, YSR Congress/ AP, Jayalalitha/ TN, Mamta Banerji/ WB (all are also potential 3rd front constituents) will not support BJP if Modi is projected as PM. The Akali Dal and Shiv Sena are the only parties which might find Modi acceptable. The communists of course will never join the BJP. So with Modi as the BJPs official PM candidate , the NDA will lose the race before it starts.

My message to the BJP… ditch Modi (and Hidnutva hardliners), get cracking with electoral alliances and send out a secular message. Mr Gadkari, are you listening ?