Coming soon ELECTIONS !
Its that time of the year again. Elections !! Coming up in several states in the next few months and for the parliament in 2014. The newspapers/ magazines and TV channels are already working overtime churning out analysis and predictions. So why should I be left out. Here is my take on the 2014 parliament election.
We can look forward to another coalition government. The 3 possibilities are
• Congress let UPA
• BJP led NDA
• Third front..led by SP/ Mulayam Singh,
The million (or billion dollar scam) question of course is which one… I could make an anaylsis or a guess, but personally I wish it to be the BJP. Now I am no BJP-lover..quite the contrary in fact. My simple reason is that a change in government is good for India, and the NDA is best suited to replace the UPA. Also I am fed up (an understatement) with the Nehru-Gnadhi dynasty and the chamchagiri culture of Congress.
Here is what I think will be important in winning the elections:
Now the big issue within BJP is whether Narendra Modi can be the PM. Personally I think he is a dangerous man to have as PM. But even if by some divine intervention Modi were to become less fascist, his anti-Muslim image will not go away, and that means Nitish Kumar/ Bihar, Naveen Patnaik/ Odisha Chandra Babu Naidu/ AP, YSR Congress/ AP, Jayalalitha/ TN, Mamta Banerji/ WB (all are also potential 3rd front constituents) will not support BJP if Modi is projected as PM. The Akali Dal and Shiv Sena are the only parties which might find Modi acceptable. The communists of course will never join the BJP. So with Modi as the BJPs official PM candidate , the NDA will lose the race before it starts.
My message to the BJP… ditch Modi (and Hidnutva hardliners), get cracking with electoral alliances and send out a secular message. Mr Gadkari, are you listening ?
Its that time of the year again. Elections !! Coming up in several states in the next few months and for the parliament in 2014. The newspapers/ magazines and TV channels are already working overtime churning out analysis and predictions. So why should I be left out. Here is my take on the 2014 parliament election.
We can look forward to another coalition government. The 3 possibilities are
• Congress let UPA
• BJP led NDA
• Third front..led by SP/ Mulayam Singh,
The million (or billion dollar scam) question of course is which one… I could make an anaylsis or a guess, but personally I wish it to be the BJP. Now I am no BJP-lover..quite the contrary in fact. My simple reason is that a change in government is good for India, and the NDA is best suited to replace the UPA. Also I am fed up (an understatement) with the Nehru-Gnadhi dynasty and the chamchagiri culture of Congress.
Here is what I think will be important in winning the elections:
- • Corruption is NOT an election issue. The BJP might stall parliament over it, but the bulk of voters are not interested. The Anna Hazare movement with all the initial media coverage and rallies, and even the government paying heed to it, was basically an urban middle-class thing. We are 110 crore people in India, barely 10 lac were involved.
- • Religion, Caste and community will continue to dominate voter choice for more than 80% of the electorate.
- • Smart pre-election alliances will win votes and seats. Unfortunately I do not see any serious effort in this direction by either the BJP or the Congress.
- • Clarity of leadership at the state level will help win seats. The BJP is ahead of the Congress in this.
- • Antagonising the Muslims can cost BJP dear…and this may probably be BJPs biggest hurdle, in the form of Narendra Modi.
Now the big issue within BJP is whether Narendra Modi can be the PM. Personally I think he is a dangerous man to have as PM. But even if by some divine intervention Modi were to become less fascist, his anti-Muslim image will not go away, and that means Nitish Kumar/ Bihar, Naveen Patnaik/ Odisha Chandra Babu Naidu/ AP, YSR Congress/ AP, Jayalalitha/ TN, Mamta Banerji/ WB (all are also potential 3rd front constituents) will not support BJP if Modi is projected as PM. The Akali Dal and Shiv Sena are the only parties which might find Modi acceptable. The communists of course will never join the BJP. So with Modi as the BJPs official PM candidate , the NDA will lose the race before it starts.
My message to the BJP… ditch Modi (and Hidnutva hardliners), get cracking with electoral alliances and send out a secular message. Mr Gadkari, are you listening ?
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